Why Trump might win?

Why Trump Might Win

We here at PRESC Tutoring are strictly non-partisan; however, using the acronym of what this website stands for, here is a brief overview of why Donald Trump might return to the White House on November 5. One thing that students of history and politics must always consider is that, personal feelings aside, they must be aware of all sides of an argument. So, in under 1,000 words, here is a PRESC interpretation of why Donald J. Trump might become the 47th President and 46th man to hold office (this last point is apt, as the only other man to have won the White House, lost it, and then won it again was Grover Cleveland in the 19th century).

Politics

The electoral college in America is set up in the Republicans' favour. A brief anecdote is that gaining the most votes doesn’t matter; it’s the number of “electoral college” votes that decides who wins the White House. This system is complex and cannot be fully explained within the parameters of this article. However, California, with 39 million voters, receives 55 electoral votes, whereas the smallest 22 states (of which 13 lean Republican) have roughly 39 million voters and receive 94 electoral votes. Trump and the Republicans benefit from this quirk in the Constitution.

Trump is perceived by some as the man that America needs in uncertain times. While there is an element of racism for sure, for many, giving their vote to a Black female will be a step too far and one of the reasons why Barack Obama urged young black men to vote for Harris like they voted for him. However, race aside, many are concerned that Kamala Harris is unproven on the global stage. Under the Biden administration, the Taliban have regained control in Afghanistan, Putin has wantonly invaded Ukraine, and China circles menacingly over Taiwan. These incidents have been picked up by Trump and his supporters of why in the realm of national security he should be the man for the Oval Office.

Religion

One of the biggest mysteries for many in the West is why the Bible Belt South and influential Evangelical Christians overwhelmingly vote for Trump. Is it because he is a man of scripture? Hardly, when asked to name his favourite Bible verse, he responded, “all of them.” Does he display New Testament love and forgiveness? Again, past behaviour would suggest not. The real reason is twofold: America is deeply divided on the abortion issue. One of the reasons Trump shocked the world by winning in 2016 was his promise to “stack the bench” with conservative justices who would look to overturn the Roe vs. Wade ruling that legalised abortion across all 50 states in 1973. Trump was fortunate enough to have three vacancies arise during his term, resulting in a 6-3 conservative-liberal split on the court.

Secondly, and relevant to the ongoing Palestine issue, many Evangelical Christians believe in a biblical prophecy that Jesus can only return when Israel is secured for the Jewish people. As such, any presidential figure who is strong on Israel will garner the influential Evangelical voting bloc. Trump recognising Jerusalem and its historical religious significance to the people of Israel pleased many of these supporters.

Economics

This is the big one. Whether through hyperbole, fact, fiction, or a combination of all three, Trump has seized the narrative that only he can restore the American economy to its former might. While inflation has been high under Biden, the economy has performed relatively well. However, inflation, part of a global phenomenon has hit “middle” America hard, and the question, “Do you feel richer than you did four years ago?” has been answered negatively by many. In addition, America is the father of the capitalist creed, and many see Trump, a perceived business success, as the right man to steer the USS Economic Warship. Furthermore, the expectation that Harris and the Democrats will increase taxes may drive many, especially in crucial swing states, to vote for Trump. In a nation that prides itself on “rugged individualism,” this could be key.

Social

The culture wars are well and truly alive on both sides of the Atlantic. In recent years, progressive causes such as LGBT rights, calls for climate action, police reform, and the teaching of Critical Race Theory have gained traction. These policies are popular among some Americans, particularly in the coastal states, which are solidly Democratic. However, there has been significant pushback. Conservatives feel uneasy about the change in societal norms and believe the very fabric of American society is being eroded by what they see as “degenerate” behaviour. This type of backlash is not new; students of Weimar Germany will recognize the cultural reaction against the freedoms introduced in Berlin in the 1920s, which helped fuel the rise of the Nazis as saviours of “true” national culture.

Culture

Gun ownership in the USA is one issue that many outside America struggle to understand. To provide some context: because of the Bill of Rights, signed in 1791, the initial 10 amendments to the Constitution include the Second Amendment: “A well-regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.” Much like abortion for religious conservatives, gun ownership is a key issue for many voters. The National Rifle Association (NRA) is the single most influential lobbying group in Washington, and they overwhelmingly support Republican candidates. Donald Trump is a key Second Amendment supporter, and in many swing states, both hunting and gun ownership are popular.

The aim of this article isn’t to sway one’s opinion in any direction. Merely to offer insight into how and why the potential reasons for a Trump victory in a few weeks will be… Until the next time…