1979 And All That

Ask the average person on the street who has a passing interest in history if the dates 1066, 1789, 1914, and 1945 mean anything, and the answer will inevitably be in the affirmative. However, push them on 1979, and blank faces will likely greet you. This essay will attempt to demonstrate that to understand the modern world, it is imperative to have a working knowledge of the last year of the 70s. Forewarning: an understanding of the Islamic schism and a geographical understanding of the Middle East will help. Oil will also play a significant role.

Islam was founded in the 7th century by Prophet Mohammed. His death in 632 started an internal struggle between his followers that has serious ramifications on regional politics today. The majority of the world's Muslims are Sunni (85-90%) who initially followed Mohammed’s companion Abu Bakr, backed by the majority of the tribes at the time. However, the remaining Muslims around the world are called Shias, who descend from the followers of Ali, a cousin of the prophet, who was eventually martyred at Karbala in what is now Iraq. Theological differences between the two aren’t key to this article, but, like the Catholic/Protestant schism that divided Europe in the 16th century, the ramifications are still being felt now. In essence, they don’t like each other.

In 1979, the Shah of Iran left the country to seek medical treatment in Switzerland. In his absence, Ruhollah Khomeini launched a coup that ushered in an Islamic revolution which still lasts today. The key point here is that Khomeini, who from now on will be known as the Ayatollah, is from the Shia branch of Islam. Overnight, Iran, which had been a staunch ally of America, becomes their number one enemy. The revolution arguably causes Jimmy Carter to lose the following year's election to Ronald Reagan, with his inability to release 52 hostages' further proof that Carter was a weak president overseeing an underperforming economy. Crucially, Iran is the world's leading Shia nation and a historical rival of Arabia and the newly independent Gulf countries.

We now need to skip across the western Iranian border to Mesopotamia, now known as Iraq. 1979 was also tumultuous year in Iraq. A 41-year-old Saddam Hussein replaced President Ahmed Hassan al-Bakr in an almost bloodless coup. Saddam was not a religious zealot but was from the Sunni branch of Islam (Iraq is majority Shia) and understood that nothing consolidates power better than creating an enemy that can be blamed for all sorts of ills. The word non-violent is doing some heavy lifting here as in his few days in office, Saddam had dozens of political rivals killed on trumped-up charges of treason and even shot his best friend in the head to prove a point about the art of ruthlessness.

Iraq is the fourth-largest oil-producing nation in the world. The creation of OPEC following the Yom Kippur War of 1973 saw its economy become one of the richest in the world. Indeed, at one stage, Iraq had the fourth-largest army in the world. Alongside this, the oil riches of the 70s saw a modernisation project in Iraq that genuinely saw incredible progress in education, infrastructure, and healthcare. Iraq exported more doctors and engineers than any other nation on earth. Yet Saddam was capable of utter cruelty and ruthlessness. Alongside the ruthless stories, his treatment of the Kurds in the north of Iraq and the Shias in the (crucially, oil-producing) south can only be described as barbaric. Sensing an opportunity for territorial expansion after the Iranian revolution and using the Shia takeover of his neighbours as an excuse to quell the majority Shia, he launched an ill-fated invasion of Iran that would last eight years and arguably produce no winners.

Currently, we need to leave the Gulf and head east to the mountainous terrain of Afghanistan. We stay in 1979 but now focus on the context of the Cold War. The USSR, fearing an Islamic threat on their southern border (and a potential uprising in their own ‘stans), launches their own Vietnam War. Afghanistan is defended by an army called the ‘Mujahideen,’ which roughly means army of God. The enemy of my enemy is my friend is a maxim as old as time. In this case, the USA, seeing an opportunity to act as a proxy in an overseas war, sends weapons and money to help defeat the Soviets in Afghanistan, which eventually became one of the major reasons for the collapse of Communism. The war lasts from 1979 until 1989, and when the final Soviet troops leave, America leaves its military technology with the Mujahideen as a future insurance policy against a Soviet reprisal.

It's time to return to the Gulf. The end of the war between Iran and Iraq is catastrophic for both nations. For Saddam and Iraq, a once thriving economy has been reduced to an $84 billion debt to international banks. Looking for a favour from his Gulf cousins, he asks Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to raise the price of oil within the OPEC Cartel. Saddam’s argument is that he has been protecting his fellow Sunni Arabs from the Shia Islamic revolution. OPEC didn’t buy this argument and kept prices as they were. Saddam, in a vengeful mood, decides revenge is his best option. He declares that Kuwait has been siphoning oil from the Iraqi border and demands compensation. Kuwait, aghast at the accusation, stands its ground and refuses Saddam’s demands. The result is an invasion which, from a military standpoint, is an utter mismatch. A nation of almost 40 million people vs. 3 million sees Iraq storm the border and conquer Kuwait.

We now need to take a little break and explain the makeup of the Gulf and why it plays an important role in global affairs. Situated essentially in the centre of Asia and Europe, the countries of the Gulf have always provided an important geo-strategic position for global trade. The discovery of oil in the region at the start of the 20th century transformed this desert area into arguably the most disputed place on the planet. The Gulf countries are comprised of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and Bahrain. Yemen is geographically within the Gulf but void of any natural resources and as such has been devoid of any major international attention. Roughly, these countries make up 75% of global oil supplies. They also share a sea which, depending on your persuasion, is either the Arabian or Persian Gulf. This is arguably the most lucrative stretch of water anywhere on the planet. The problem for the Gulf countries, and more significantly for the USA, is that Iran shares this coastline for 1,219 km. If this waterway is blockaded, the global economy would soon follow. The six Gulf countries are, for all intents and purposes, absolute monarchies—tribal fiefdoms that have been successfully conquered by the now ruling families. In Saudi Arabia, you have the Al-Sauds who made their own Faustian pact with the Wahhabi clans: political control for the Sauds, religious control for the Wahhabis. In the UAE, the emirate of Abu Dhabi (which makes up 95% of the oil revenue) is in de facto control under the Bin Zayed family. Qatar is ruled by the dominant Al Thani family. Bahrain is an interesting story. Essentially a Saudi vassal state, the Shia majority of the population is ruled by a Sunni leader who is beholden to Saudi wishes. Oman is a bit of an outlier, geographically positioned on the edge of the Indian Ocean, and has always been the Switzerland of the Middle East in terms of remaining neutral in regional squabbles.

In 2024, we know Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar are major players on the world stage. In 1990, following Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, this wasn’t the case. A genuine fear at the time was Saddam’s example on his southern border being repeated over the Gulf. Enter George H. Bush, the 41st president and previous director of the CIA, and crucially political friends with Dick Cheney, who was the CEO of the Halliburton oil company. He understood the importance of the region in terms of American interests. Allied with the Gulf countries' fears of an Iraqi takeover, the conditions were set for a marriage of convenience. Fearing one man controlling 75% of the world's oil supplies, America committed itself to the largest military excursion since the Vietnam War. This is no small feat; the Vietnam Syndrome was real in the psyche of both Washington and the American public at large. However, on the 16th of January 1991, Operation Desert Storm and Operation Desert Shield were launched and were so successful that President Bush declared the ‘ghosts of Vietnam’ buried deep beneath the Arabian desert. Crucially, however, Saddam was allowed to retreat to Baghdad. Regime change was considered one step too far for the Western powers and invoked memories of colonization and Sykes-Picot on fellow Arab countries.

With the threat of Saddam diminished, a pragmatism pact was made between America and the GCC. America would stay in the region and provide military assistance against further aggressors and in return would have privileged access to the black gold that lay beneath the sand. This suited all parties involved except a young billionaire prince from Saudi Arabia whose family had close connections with the Bush dynasty in Texas. Osama Bin Laden was a pious man who found American military presence on the sacred land of the two holiest sites in Islam, Mecca and Medina, unpalatable. To attempt a removal of what he considered the infidel, he set up a group called Al-Qaeda, which in Arabic literally means ‘The Base.’ However, he fell afoul of the Saudi government, who decided they needed American military support more than a radical group. Bin Laden and his followers were banished from the desert kingdom and found sanctuary (via Sudan) in Afghanistan.

Between the Taliban takeover in 1994 and September 11th, 2001, the nation of Afghanistan was pretty much ignored. Outrage over the destruction of thousand-year-old Buddha statues aside, this opium producing mountainous outpost warranted little media scrutiny. That all changed the day the Twin Towers were destroyed. Within days, the nation of Afghanistan became the most infamous name in the west. Bin Laden, although wanted by the CIA for years had used his time to recruit and train soldiers to strike back against America. Within weeks, the might of the military American military embarked upon Afghanistan and without too much fighting saw the Taliban removed from power and forced to retreat into the mountains and across the border into Pakistan. In terms of military operations, the invasion was an unqualified success. The state building that followed was a different matter. Democracy as a concept might be the darling of the liberal west. It doesn’t always translate into societies that have been built on tribal allegiances and loyalties for centuries. 20 years, hundreds of billions of dollars spent training the Afghan army and backing a corrupt government came undone in spectacular style in the summer of 2022 when almost immediately as President Biden signalled American troops signalled were to leave, the Taliban returned to retake power. ‘America may have the watches; we have the time.’

President George W. Bush saw the attack on New York as a chance to finally end Saddam’s rule in Iraq once and for all. Declaring Iraq alongside North Korea and Iran as an ‘Axis of Evil’ he set plans in place to overthrow the Iraqi leader and install a democratic regime in the heart of the Middle East and thus set on a domino impact that would in the Neo-conservative ideology that ruled Washington would act as a catalyst and remove fellow autocrats across the region. Using the ruse of Saddam having Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD’s) that could wipe out the Middle East in 45 minutes, he sanctioned an invasion that was met with unanimous international disapproval.

As in 1990 and 2001, the initial military onslaught saw a comprehensive victory. However, like in Afghanistan the nation building that followed was nothing short of disastrous. Not understanding the difference between Shia and Sunni, President Bush assumed all Muslims were the same and ignored the sectarian hatred that existed because of Saddam’s Sunni dominant rule. Unleashing militias funded by Iran, Al-Qaeda and other actors; Iraq descended into utter chaos. Whichever government was ruling in Baghdad couldn’t get a grip on the rife graft and sectarian violence that became a feature of everyday life. The army that served were also disbanded, and in echoes of the late 1980’s in Afghanistan weren’t forced to hand in their weapons. As a result, many of the leading officers fled across the border to Syria where they were welcomed with open arms by the Islamic State (ISIS). This group were able to take advantage of the unruly nature of Iraq and latterly Syria following the Arab Spring they were able to declare a Caliphate and controlled large parts of both countries (and their oil supplies) for a period across 2014-17 unleashing barbaric behaviour and ‘justice’ on the people who lived under their control.

So, to conclude, and I appreciate this essay could be (and probably needs to be) ten times longer to do real justice to every event. Hopefully this short introduction to affairs of the region and global history post 1979 gives the reader a new understanding of why ‘1979 and all that’ should be studied in every school.